Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if Texas enacts a law or constitutional provision establishing a qualifying statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and June 30, 2027. Otherwise, resolves No. Enactment, not the effective date, controls; later nonimplementation, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry does not undo a qualifying enactment.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Must prohibit or suspend approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation by default statewide, covering all new data centers or a subset including all new facilities with requested or nameplate interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility. Specific exemptions are allowed. Suspension until a condition is satisfied qualifies. A conditional suspension mandate qualifies only if its trigger is objectively determinable, not left to agency findings, certifications, or proceedings. Enactment includes signature, veto override, law without signature, or other lawful mechanisms. Voter approval counts on election day, as reflected in certified results.
Exclusions and exceptions
No qualifying enactment means No. Tax-incentive, exemption-certification, or economic-development-award suspensions alone do not qualify, nor do local or geographically limited moratoria, nonstatutory executive or agency orders, or laws merely authorizing a discretionary moratorium. Permitting data centers subject to restrictions rather than prohibiting them by default does not qualify. Passage by one or both chambers or announced intent to sign is not enactment. Provisions removed before enactment or line-item-vetoed without an override do not count; the operative text at enactment controls. A later effective date does not disqualify an enactment.
Timing & resolution
From market creation through June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET (July 1, 2027, at 03:59 UTC). For voter-approved measures, the approval election must fall within that window, regardless of later certification or effectiveness.
Ambiguities in the rules
Official Texas state-government information is the primary resolution source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The rules do not define how that consensus is established. No other material ambiguity is apparent.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.11 / 0.12. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
Explore more artificial intelligence →