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Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if Ohio legally enacts a statutory or constitutional statewide moratorium on new data centers during the market window; otherwise No. Enactment, not effectiveness, controls. Later nonimplementation, judicial invalidation, repeal, expiry, or a delayed effective date does not undo qualification. Official Ohio government information is primary; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Conditions for a winning outcome
The mandatory measure must generally suspend or prohibit approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation statewide for all new data centers, or a subset including all new facilities above 100 MW of requested or nameplate interconnection capacity per facility. Specific exemptions are allowed if prohibition is the default. Suspension until a condition is met can qualify. A condition triggering suspension must be objectively determinable, not deferred to agency findings, certifications, or proceedings. Enactment includes signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, voter approval, or another lawful enactment mechanism.
Exclusions and exceptions
Tax-incentive suspensions, exemption-certification pauses, or economic-development award pauses alone do not qualify. Neither do local or geographically limited moratoriums, executive or agency orders, or other nonstatutory, nonconstitutional measures. Merely authorizing a discretionary moratorium, or permitting activity subject to conditions or restrictions, is insufficient. Legislative passage or announced intent to sign is not enactment. Text removed before enactment does not count; a line-item-vetoed provision counts only if that veto is overridden. The operative text at enactment controls.
Timing & resolution
From market creation through Dec. 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (Jan. 1, 2028, 04:59 UTC). Voter-approved measures count on election day as reflected in certified results, regardless of later certification or effectiveness.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rules do not explicitly define 'data center.' The scope rule itself is clear: covering all new data centers qualifies, and a narrower subset must include all new facilities above the specified 100 MW threshold.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.19 / 0.2. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:10+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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