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Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $75 by June 30, 2027?
GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Market resolves Yes if OpenAI's GPT Astra 6.1+ model debuts at a Standard output token price (Short context rate) of at least $75 per million tokens by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model version 6.1 or higher with 'Astra' in its name or identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes/suffixes/descriptors. The debut price is the Standard output token price using the Short context rate, announced by OpenAI or listed on its official API pricing page when first made available to the general public. Introductory prices qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. The primary resolution source is official OpenAI information, including its official API pricing page, with additional verification from credible reporting.
Exclusions and exceptions
GPT-6 Astra (including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot) does not qualify. Tier-labeled models like GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna and successors, and task-specific lines like GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models do not qualify. Batch, Flex, Fast mode, Priority, long-context, cached, regional, and data-residency prices do not qualify. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by the deadline, resolves No.
Timing & resolution
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Equivalent UTC timestamp 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z is treated as the same deadline.
Ambiguities in the rules
No material ambiguities. The source clearly defines debut as first made available to the general public, and resolution is based on the debut price, so later price changes are irrelevant.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.006 / 0.067. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-25T22:15:07+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T22:14:38.268227Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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