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Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $75 by June 30, 2027?

Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $1.0kLifetime volume $2.6kSource Polymarket

Contract resolution rules

AI-assisted explanation

Market resolves Yes if Anthropic's next Claude Fable 5.2+ model debuts at $75/M output tokens or more by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No.

Conditions for a winning outcome

A model qualifies if its name or identifier includes "Fable" and version is 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors (e.g., Claude Fable 5.2, Claude Fable 6, or similar). The debut price must be the "Base tokens" output price for default global inference at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, at least $75 per million USD, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when first made available to the general public. Introductory prices qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. The primary resolution source is official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Exclusions and exceptions

Models without "Fable" in the name (e.g., Claude Mythos 5.1) or below version 5.2 (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1) do not qualify. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only, and other data-residency prices do not count. Credible reporting serves only as additional verification, not as a standalone price source. No qualifying public debut by the deadline resolves No.

Timing & resolution

June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z). No qualifying debut by this time resolves No.

Ambiguities in the rules

The source does not define "debut" timing relative to announcement versus general public availability, so it is unclear whether a pre-announcement price alone suffices. It also does not specify how to handle a model announced but not yet publicly available at the deadline.

AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome prices and implied probabilities

Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.

Yes2.8%
2.75¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No97.3%
97.25¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.007 / 0.048. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-24T14:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T13:56:40.225979Z

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