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Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $75 by June 30, 2027?
Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Market resolves Yes if Anthropic's next Claude Fable 5.2+ model debuts at $75/M output tokens or more by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A model qualifies if its name or identifier includes "Fable" and version is 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors (e.g., Claude Fable 5.2, Claude Fable 6, or similar). The debut price must be the "Base tokens" output price for default global inference at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, at least $75 per million USD, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when first made available to the general public. Introductory prices qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. The primary resolution source is official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Exclusions and exceptions
Models without "Fable" in the name (e.g., Claude Mythos 5.1) or below version 5.2 (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1) do not qualify. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only, and other data-residency prices do not count. Credible reporting serves only as additional verification, not as a standalone price source. No qualifying public debut by the deadline resolves No.
Timing & resolution
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z). No qualifying debut by this time resolves No.
Ambiguities in the rules
The source does not define "debut" timing relative to announcement versus general public availability, so it is unclear whether a pre-announcement price alone suffices. It also does not specify how to handle a model announced but not yet publicly available at the deadline.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.007 / 0.048. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-24T14:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T13:56:40.225979Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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