Yes35.0%
Artificial intelligence Open at last refresh
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
The rules track the first qualifying solution announcement by an eligible AI lab. If none occurs by the deadline, they specify "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If different qualifying problems are announced on the same ET calendar day, the alphabetically first problem wins. However, these named outcomes are not explicitly mapped to the listed Yes/No outcomes.
Conditions for a winning outcome
An eligible lab or its official representative must announce that Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, or Yang-Mills existence and mass gap has been solved. The solution must be presented as work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. Eligible labs are those listed in the source, their subsidiaries and research divisions, plus any other company with a model on MMLU-Pro at announcement time. No confirmation from Clay Math Institute or another organization is required. Official lab information is primary; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Exclusions and exceptions
Navier-Stokes announcements, partial results, and progress announcements do not qualify. Neither do announcements that merely credit or congratulate outside researchers, even if those researchers used the lab's models, compute, or research credits. Announcements by ineligible companies, organizations, or individuals do not qualify. Without a qualifying announcement by the deadline, the rules specify the no-solution outcome.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, equivalent to January 1, 2028, at 04:59 UTC. The provider end date matches this deadline.
Ambiguities in the rules
The question asks whether no problem will be solved and lists Yes/No outcomes, but the rules instead resolve to a problem name or "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". They do not explicitly map these to Yes/No. The question suggests Yes means no qualifying announcement, contrary to the draft's claim, but the outcome mismatch remains unresolved.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order.
The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No65.0%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.34 / 0.36. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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