Yes2.0%
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Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Market resolves Yes if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by the deadline, following the first qualifying problem announced. If multiple qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), the problem whose name comes first alphabetically determines resolution. If no qualifying announcement occurs by the deadline, the market resolves No. P versus NP is one of five qualifying problems, not the sole target.
Conditions for a winning outcome
Yes if an eligible AI lab or its official representative announces a solution to a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem (Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, or Yang-Mills existence and mass gap) by the deadline, presenting it as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. Partial results or progress toward a solution do not qualify. No confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used as resolution source.
Exclusions and exceptions
No if no qualifying problem is announced by the deadline, if only partial results or progress are announced, if Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness is announced (explicitly excluded), if the announcement credits only outside researchers without lab, researcher, or model credit, if the announcer is not an eligible AI lab or official representative, or if the announcement concerns a non-qualifying problem.
Timing & resolution
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (equivalent to 2028-01-01T04:59:00Z).
Ambiguities in the rules
The source does not explicitly state whether the market resolves Yes or No if the first qualifying problem solved is not P versus NP; the rules say resolution follows the first qualifying problem, but the market question specifically asks about P vs NP. The eligible labs list can expand to any company with a model on the MMLU-pro leaderboard at announcement time, but the timing and frequency of leaderboard updates is unspecified.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order.
The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required.
The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
No98.0%
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.019 / 0.021. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T16:00:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T15:58:05.90581Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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