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Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.
Contract resolution rules
Resolves Yes if CMI awards a Millennium Prize for Navier-Stokes or officially declares the problem solved by the deadline; otherwise No.
Conditions for a winning outcome
A CMI Millennium Prize award for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or an official CMI statement declaring the problem solved, by the deadline. A published proof alone does not qualify. AI involvement or prize acceptance or decline does not affect eligibility.
Exclusions and exceptions
A published or publicly posted proof without official CMI recognition. No declaration or award by CMI by the deadline. Reports outside official CMI channels that lack credible consensus confirming a qualifying declaration.
Timing & resolution
11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027. Equivalent to 04:59 AM UTC on January 1, 2028.
Ambiguities in the rules
The rule permits a consensus of credible reporting to confirm a qualifying CMI declaration, but does not define which outlets count as credible or what consensus threshold is required.
AI-assisted explanation of this version of the source rules. It does not replace the provider’s terms.
Original resolution rules
Outcome prices and implied probabilities
Compare the quoted price for each outcome. The amounts below assume a $1 payout for a winning share.
Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.11 / 0.12. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.
Fetched 2026-10-23T13:00:09+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T12:58:05.66909Z
Event contracts and stock returns
A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.
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