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Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

Screened using the explicit question date; payout timing still follows the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jan 2028Liquidity $11.5kLifetime volume $8.1kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Yes15.0%
15.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
No85.0%
85.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.13 / 0.17. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T09:45:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T09:36:57.687208Z

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A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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