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Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Provider end date; confirm observation window in the rules.

Provider end date 1 Jul 2027Liquidity $2.9kLifetime volume $26.0kSource Polymarket

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What actually has to happen?

Original terms

A reviewed plain-language explanation is not available for these terms yet. The full provider wording is shown below.

Original resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

THE MARKET’S VIEW

Two outcomes. One precise question.

Up89.0%
89.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout
Down11.0%
11.00¢ indicative price per $1 winning payout

Prices describe trading, not certainty or an independent forecast. Bid / ask for the first outcome: 0.81 / 0.97. Market liquidity is not guaranteed fill size.

Fetched 2026-10-22T10:15:01+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-22T10:08:57.926958Z

Keep the investment thesis separate

A company’s share price, this event’s probability and the return on an event contract answer different questions. A correct company thesis can still miss a contract’s deadline or its exact conditions.

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